Over the last 20 years since I started trading, I've devised hundreds of trading systems. And I've spent thousands of dollars on expensive stock trading courses. Which method is the best? Is there such a thing? And which trading system should you use? The answer may surprise you!
Here's What's Wrong With Most Trading Systems
The best trading systems are based on probability. Meaning that if you do the same thing over and over again, you should make money over time. No one has ever devised a trading system that's right 100% of the time. Most people are looking for trading systems that give them winning trades at least 70 - 80% of the time. Even though this might be possible, most traders lose money with these systems because the average losses are greater than the average gains. The most profitable trading systems give you winning trades only 30 - 50% of the time. These trading systems are profitable because the average winning trade is far greater than the average losing trade.
The other problem with trading systems is that the entry and exit signals are never clear. No matter what anyone says about their system, there will always be 'gray' areas or 'extra' or 'advanced' trading signals you can take where the probability of success is essentially the same as gambling or flipping a coin. And when any trading system gives you 5 - 10 losses in a row, will you have the confidence to continue using it?
Problems With Trading Systems That Are Right 80% Of The Time
The average profits are small
The average losses are usually greater than the average gains
Claims of being right 80% of the time are hard to prove in real time
More trading signals means trading commissions are higher
It's discouraging to work so hard, have so many winning trades, and still lose money!
Problems With Profitable Trading Systems That Are Right 30 - 50 % Of The Time
A string of losses and draw downs can be discouraging
Fewer trades means that a trader needs to stay alert but do nothing most of the time
You will miss out on many profitable trades because there was no signal or the signal occurred while you were taking a break
What Is The Best Trading System?
The answer is that all trading systems have value. Learn as many as you can! Trading is all about competing with other traders. You will be selling because you think the price is too high and someone else will be buying because they feel the price will go higher. When you understand how other traders make their decisions, you will become a far better trader.
What Is The Best Trading System For You?
Use a trading system that matches your personality
Use a trading system that limits your risk
Use a trading system with a positive expectancy
Use a trading system where the average gains are far greater than the average losses
You can also base your trading decisions on a combination of trading systems. For example if you see buy signals that are confirmed by many different trading systems, chances are there will be strong buying pressure at these price points. The same is true for sell signals. Whatever system or systems you choose to use, make sure that you've thoroughly tested your trading plan in real time without using real money. Paper trade using a simulator and take a sampling of at least 100 trades in different markets. When you're confident in your system, you're more likely to stick with it and be more profitable over time.
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